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Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.
The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
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On Wednesday, New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport announced that her office had filed a petition for writ of certiorari following an appeals court verdict from earlier this year that went in favour of prediction markets. That 2-1 verdict from the Third Circuit Court of Appeals was handed down in April, and New Jersey had until Thursday to petition the high court.
The petition poses the question of whether the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, which was enacted in 2010 in the aftermath of the Great Recession, “preempted states from regulating sports bets that occur within their jurisdictions if those bets are offered on markets registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission”. Prediction markets have argued that their event contracts are financial derivatives regulated by the CFTC whereas many states contend that they are simply sports bets by another name.
There is no guarantee the Supreme Court will hear the case but a separate appeals court ruling from 28 August bolsters its chances. In that case, a three-judge panel from the Ninth Circuit ruled unanimously in favour of the state of Nevada, creating a circuit court split, which is a hallmark of many Supreme Court cases.
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After 11+ years working for Calvin and CalvinAyre.com, it’s hard to say goodbye. I’ve left this to the last couple of hours and imbibed a few Bombay Sapphires to ease me through it. Still, I’ve written and deleted and wrote again, but the best I can say right now is that it’s been an incredible ride.
Before I sign off, to the staff writers, past and present; Steven Stradbroke, Peter Amsel, Jamie Hinks, John Blaise, Erik Gibbs, Lee Davy, Kirby Garlitos, Jasmine Solana, Leonard Postrado, Paul Seaton, Dan Taylor, Derek Tonin, Criz Hombrebueno, Ed Drake, Lee Bell, Rafi Farber, Daniel Gardner, Paul How, Admir Aljic, Anton Fabico, Mike O’Donnell, Jason Kirk, and Vince Martin, and our on-camera hosts Becky Liggero-Fontana, Dana Workman, Angelia Ong, Ed Pownall, Stephanie Tower and Tatjana Pasalic, to our excellent productions team Patrick Visenio, Jerome Guidotti, Rob Peacock, Ian Matteo, Glenn Ala, Chris Roxas, Geoff Salorio, Yancy Uy, Carol Tan, Evette Borromeo, Jeks Inanuran, Janus Martinez, Giselle Ordinario, Joseph Cataan, Sandy Ventosa, Carlos Dittborn, Mani Singh, Roland Naidoo.
And to all of the people behind the scenes Giron Perez, Joey Bote, Sid Isidro, Roger Castro, Tristan Villagracia, Jeremy Beltran, Ednelyn Agulto-Manalo, Jeh Almazan, Ian Ignacio, Red Bargan, Kimmy Maclang, Xeirus Sta. Ana, Lea Nicolle Luat, Catherine Resurreccion, Alexandre Esguerra, Jayson Pimentel, Samori Joseph, Cindy Padilla, Amanda Lopez, Rogelio Gabiano, Aries Hegina, Fawn Labrie, Anthony Dohm, Adrian Eden, Paolo Ramos, Emily Haruko Leeb, Mani Chagtai, Brad Lancaster, Carl Rivera, Alfredo Abaroa, Shannon M, Aphol Angeles, Vine and Zen Alvarez, Frey Sotelo, Daves Biag, Idn Aguliar, Angela Alano, Jeremy Yap and George F.
