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About The Wild Hatter
The old adage “Everything is Bigger in Texas” does not refer solely to the state’s massive geographic size, which, at 268,820 square miles, ranks as the second-largest state in the US behind Alaska.
Instead, the phrase embodies the ethos of the Lone Star State, where Texans demonstrate a sense of pride and identity that exemplifies the state’s outsized persona. As event contracts proliferate, the adage could be applied to prediction markets, where volume ranks among the highest in the nation. Last Sunday, for instance, trading activity for an NFL matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants topped $208 million across US markets, figures from Aldrin Research show. At Kalshi, volume for the NFC East showdown on Sunday Night Football eclipsed that of any NFL regular-season game last year.
The volume is not only seen across NFL markets, but also on those in college football, which is practically a religion in Texas. When Ohio State faced Texas in a Top 5 matchup on 12 September, volume surpassed 50.7 million contracts traded, according to Odds Shopper, a prediction market tracking site. The robust activity set the stage for an intense legislative hearing three days later in the Texas Senate.
How to play The Wild Hatter
“The time was right to reassess this crucial policy area, focusing on the topic of gambling advertising where the former committee’s strong recommendations have been largely unaddressed and where substantial developments in the gambling advertising landscape since 2020 have demanded a re-evaluation of the policy options,” he said.
The committee has advocated for applying a public health framework to gambling advertising regulation. It criticised the existing patchwork of self-regulation, noting the Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) codes, co-regulation for broadcasts and industry-led voluntary measures, were inadequate.
Instead, the report recommended that advertising regulation be placed on a statutory footing under the Gambling Commission.
What is The Wild Hatter?
“We continue to view regulation as the largest risk to prediction markets,” says the analyst. “While industry growth remains robust, adverse legal outcomes could materially impact sports contract availability and long-term adoption.”
Amid a string of losses in federal appellate courts, it appears increasingly prediction markets are angling to take their cases to the U.S. Supreme Court, banking that the high court will allow them to continue offering sports event contracts free of state gambling regulations.
Some legal experts and members of the investment community believe it’s possible the Supreme Court could hear a prediction market case at some point over the next six or seven months.
