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Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.
The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
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When he subsequently looked at casino games, something else struck him – the experience did not seem dramatically different from the slot machines he remembered seeing years earlier.
“I started thinking about how to combine the really great monetisation of randomness in casino games with the attention loop of social media platforms,” Yashin says. “The idea was: what if you could bet on the result of a short video or a short TikTok?”
That question eventually became Swipe Games, a Cyprus-based business that is well on the way to establishing swipe games as a casino category in its own right. Still in its commercial infancy, the company has rapidly gained traction across the industry since beginning sales late last year.
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The problem is that many of these recommendations involve companies that are not authorised to operate in Brazil. Some may be licensed in other countries, but that doesn’t allow them to operate legally in the Brazilian market.
The research also found profiles of influencers known as tipsters, sports traders and “professional gamblers”. They sell access to groups, predictions, spreadsheets and other products related to betting, while presenting gambling as an income-generating activity.
According to The Intercept, some content even uses expressions like “leaving the CLT [Brazilian labour law]” and “your dream income” to promote this type of activity. There are also screenshots of alleged user earnings and posts that present gambling as a kind of investment.
